Sharing of common sense and wisdom…

Archive for January, 2012

Singapore Property Landscape


31st Jan 2012  Tue

By:  Property Ah Beng

IT’S MACRO ECONOMICS, STUPID!

My opinion of the Lion City property experts remains very low.

When the Lion City govt. introduced the additional stamp fees/charges for the property market cooling measure recently, it was the same group of property industry experts jumping high & low shouting that the property market might crash and prices might drop by 30%! These property “gurus” and developers started to blame the govt. for such extreme measure.

Now, with just one single quarter (Dec 2011) of stats, these experts started to change their tune, saying that oh, the property market might not be that bad… there’s still hope.

Read the following headline:

with 0.8% drop in sales prices, there's no more panic... against what initially commented

At least, here’s an example of there’s still sober people in this world looking at the Lion City property landscape.  Though the writer’s rationale may not be exactly correct at this juncture, but at least he has pointed out some obvious COMMON SENSE.  Read this forum:

This forum commentary makes some sense...

To fully understand the landscape of Lion City property market, one has to take in this statement: “It’s Macro Economics, Stupid!”

The City States’s property market and economy are no longer an exclusive corner of a garden.  Global economic environment continues to cast heavy influence on the City State’s overall economic performance.

To put things in perspective, here are the certainties Singapore property “players” must take note of,

–   Whether you like it or not, the US Federal Reserves (Central Bank) has announced to maintain low interest rates environment till the end of 2014. The aim is to boost corporate investment, employment and public consumption.

–  Whether the banks like it or not, Lion City’s interest rates will be “closely guided” by US Fed interest rates and will be in syn.  i.e. low interest rates prevail.

–  Whether the commoners like it or not, high inflation rates are here to stay, at least until 2014.  Gov.t won’t be confidence enough to raise interest rates to fight inflation amidst uncertain economic environment globally.

–  Whether or not the long-term US bond prices (with low yield) been jacked up by the Fed, more hot cash will continue to flow into Asia including Singapore. And watch out, QE3 is possible. The Lion City banks are full of cash! With uncertain economic and hence risky investment returns, banks have no choice but to lend out more cash as home mortgages, and less in business lending (with higher credit risk). So, home loans still cheap! New property launches continue to attract buyers, albeit the importance of locations.

–  Likewise, hedge funds are into Asian property markets as well. So there’s ample supply of funds/money to sustain property market. Developers are not ready to cut prices.  oh, forget about 30% cut in property prices, a wishful thinking.

–  To maintain economic growth, govts. all over the world will try to maintain healthy level of public investment to sustain GDP level and employment rates.  More land sales and hence property and public works constructions on-going this few years will help, for the Lion City. Asset prices must be defended “at all costs”… to prevent sudden dip in economy that can spin into uncontrollable depression and hence, cause total collapse of condifence that leads to exodus of funds (money). Therefore, property prices cannot dip beyond 15%… for that matter.

–  Anyway, just as the news forum mentioned, “healthy” demands for private homes are still there… so long as under low interest rates regime.

Just pray that there isn’t a global financial Tsunami… this few years.

 

Thinking Aloud: How Much More…


29th Jan 2012  SUN

By:  Archibal

Just How Much More… Will Change/Tilt The Scenario?

My friend shared with me the following news reports.

Scenario #1 :  How Much More effort Tiger Woods needs to push himself ahead of the game?

Tiger Woods has been in his worse state of golf career for the past two years and there are signs that he’s coming back… on the field again. It is not surprising that in his frustrating days Woods might have thought of giving up totally. But he endures and has come this far. He apparently knows, just keep pushing himself a bit more, and a bit more… there will be a state in which the whole scenario starts to change and tilts the game.

Scenario #2 :  How Much More money (wages) to prevent such cases?

It was reported in the Lion City State news medias, two top civil servants have been removed from their post and placed under corruption investigation. The country is best known for advocating high wages for its top govt. incumbents.  One of the key factors is to attract top talents (elites) to join politics or public service, and to maintain a clean and corrupt-free public service based on a transparent high wages approach. 

Psychological Defence Mechanism


28th Jan 2012  SAT

Contributed by:   Joshua  (Pastoral)

 Keeping One’s Sanity 

I was told this story by a friend, Robertson who attends church services in New York City (NYC).

According to him, the church is rather small with only 30 – 40 members.  The real interesting story is not about the church, but rather about one of the church’s elders in its committee.

According to my friend Robertson, this elder of the church (by the name of Enzo) has very funny character as he described.  Essentially, Enzo is a married man with 4 little kids.  He apparently is suffering from the “electrocuted” syndrome (a famous psychological case study) for quite a long while. The fact is, Enzo doesn’t appreciate his married life at all (being “electrocuted” all the time).  yet, Enzo turns to project the following behavioural pattern, to gain relief:

–  He always “imaging” and talking about other church-mates might be having marital problems.

–  He used to preach about “What you think?” to probe into other people’s inner-self and later, making comments about what went wrong.

–  He expresses “hates” about women and called them root-cause of all evil.

–  He professes to give advice to young people on how not to be conned and used by women.

etc. etc.

Such behavioural pattern is a reflection of “desperate relief” from one’s inner-self. It is also similar to the kind of psychological defence in which every one of us would rely on to keep our sanity in check.

But the long-lasting problem of over-dosed on this defensive mechanism within ourselves can be detrimental!  Such behavioural pattern will eventually leads to Lost In Wilderness.  It’s a matter of time the person involved ends up living constantly in his self-created false personality instead of normal living and confronting real life problems.  Nobody could help indeed.

God bless.

It’s Risk Management, Stupid!


8th Jan 2012

By:  Roadside Observer

It’s Risk Management, Stupid!  

Since December last year the mass rapid transit rails in Singapore had a few major breakdowns.  After some hu-ha the govt. has set up committee of inquiry to look into this serious breach of safety that caused >200,000 commuters scrambling for public transport in the city… “It’s a very serious case….” said the authority.

The CEO of the SMRT (mass rapid transit operator) initially vowed to stay on until things are sorted out; but two days ago she “resigned’ and the board declared that her resignation took immediate effect…

When asked, many people agreed that this CEO should go, no question about it.

But what exactly happened that could cause such a mess in mass transit?  Regardless whatever excuses and debates, here’s the root cause of all problems:  Poor Risk Management of a critical public transport system!

Read for yourself…

It's Risk Management, Stupid!

 

Big personal ego ...

 

Wrong mission... directed by wrong service culture

 

 

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