News artcle extracts/commentary
by: Roadside Observer
How Precise Can It Be?
According to this local newspaper article, it was mentioned that the minister apparently used the disastrous scenario outcome of three Japanese big corporations (i.e. Panasonic, Sharp and Sony) as classic example of failing to predict the future of technological trends. The three big guys (companies) took the wrong turn when they had predicted that the Next Big Trend was to be the high-tech TV era but as it turns out, it is the smartphone era instead. And therefore they placed the Wrong Bet!
What the writer of the article has failed to highlight is that, scenario-planning is an art, not science! There is no such thing as, so long as you plan it CAREFULLY you will not fail.
No matter how careful you are, you Can Still Fail. (Due to factors and elements that weren’t present during the time of making all the “best” plans).
What could support scenario-planning in working out the Plausible Outcome (i.e. most desired scenario to happen) are:
– Consensus/vision that could trigger great passion of the whole group (or nation) to Go-for-it even at great costs;
– Sustainable policies and implementation of required elements that support the created Vision;
– Constant tracking of courses of action and reactions, for corrective measures to steer towards the Vision;
– Be bold (in leadership) yet remains highly accountable for results and failures.
So, no matter how much dialogue and how careful in exploration are still not enough to guarantee success. It remains that there are two key factors will always play out on what you plan for; leadership and highly supported (sustainable) policies/vision.