Extracts of ST news article (background story)
5th Jan 2013 SAT
by: Roadside Observer 旁观者
The Suggested Scenarios Are “Good” But Lacking Essence of Scenario-planning/exploration
That said, such selection of scenarios by ST Team seemingly very logical but in essence, even a group of secondary school students could come up with the same “conclusion”. Essentially, scenario exploration is NOT what you choose to happen but it is an approach to Discover what’s near or at the horizon and what steps should be taken to take advantage of that most probable scenario.
Read the ST article carefully and you would realize that so called three (3) scenarios are merely Wish-list or Preferences; far from the true essence of critical scenario-planning (exploration) approach. Hence, the outcome in year 2030 may still ends up a big surprise for the LionCity State!
The ST team of writers simply failed to consider the following factors with some serious thoughts,
(1) What are the critical factors (big problems) that LionCity will be confronting with, over the next 5 -10 years? And the anwers to these critical issues?
(2) What can be the consequences IF these critical factors are not managed well? Any fall back or contingency plans?
(3) What are the critical success factors the LionCity must have a good grasp with effective national policies?
(4) What are the capability programs that LionCity must embark on, to make things happen?
While world (and regional) politics and economic environment remain the major moving forces on most nations, well explored scenarios can help a nation to shape its probable future without passively being drag down by unforeseen situations, yet allows strategic management of resources to take full advantage of what will likely to take place within a time frame (say between 5 – 10 years) that can be more accurately explored and to act upon with effective policies and programs.