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Archive for May, 2016

新加坡未来经济: 企业创新和转型的推动力在哪?


By: 街边蹲
19 May 2016

读了今天当地的联合早报社论之后,觉的此事真的是有点一波三折,前进的路上不容乐观。尤其是新加坡的中小型企业。

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社论中的结尾果然切中要害,把现实给捅了出来。除非对症下药,否则只有望梅止渴,永远活在期许当中。。。
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以下的微博短评也一针见血的把中小型企业界的普遍缺乏冒风险的进取精神和只要乘搭(政府的)顺风车心态放上台面。某些总商会也只是说些官样文章和推行一些活动,说白了,最后也只是高调要求政府继续多给于企业资助与各类津贴吧了。

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为什么情况至此?其主要原因不外以下几点。

1。缺乏真正的创新推动力。
创新的起点不来自于政府津贴与资助,而来自于企业本身(领导人至关重要)的理想和推动力。
任何创新理想都包函了使世界和社会更美好幸福的理念。
可任何企业创新的两个极重要推动力就是,(1) 高资本回报和 (2) 更迭与淘汰!
以上的两个创新推动力就像是火车的双轶道,推动着创新过程以到达终点甚至更远更幸福的地方。
只要有了这两个创新大动力,就能吸引资本投入。美国波澜壮阔的建国史早巳证明了这个逻辑。(电视波道 History Channel 还在播放)。
而在这高信息量与高科技时代,你能说 Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Apple, Alibaba, Tesla, Virgin, Samsung, 甚至于 Xiaomi 和数不尽的创新企业是依靠政府津贴和资助而成功的例子吗?事实上没有一个。

2。更迭与淘汰的竞争环境。
有一句活说,历史是没有如果的。只有不断前进和更迭的大环境中,才会有强烈的创新欲望以至产生创新的大火花,造就了新一代的事物和达到新的社会境界,以及新型产业和服务。
一个一直依靠母亲的奶水供应的人,永远将无法自我更新,更勿论创新能量了。企业也是如此。

回过头来看,新加坡本身巳经受制于国内小市场的需求和过高的工商业经营成本; 因此本国大部分中小企业除了键结海外市场作为优先考量之外,同时又要大力进行创新和转型只是理论上完美; 现实中只会出师未捷身先死!
因为,本地中小企业还不具备以上的两大创新推动力。

而且,从创新到成功的路程必须置之死地而后生,重复的进行产业重组, 科技应用,再 融资和资本投放。
当然,有极少数可能有 HOLE-IN-ONE 的运气。大多数。。。你懂的。
本地中小企业们,ARE YOU READY?

最后总结想法,
1。政府有必要评诂对中小企业的各项津贴与资助。把重点放在企业对外键结市场这一环节,而不是单单资助它们渡过难关和津贴营运成本。该淘汰的终要被更迭; 这是创新推动力之一。

2。多关注中小企业如何与政府之间建立—套融资平台/框架,注重于发展本身新产品或建立海外服务合作伙伴关系网及资本投放的资金需要。这样中小企业才有机会扩大海外市场,最后才能逐步实现高资本回报 – 创新的另一个推动力。

3。谈创新理想是好的,但现实中创新最需要的是以上所讨论的两大推动力。创新的成功和实际影响不可能由政府拉着企业走。

前进吧!新加坡。

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一带一路对新加坡有何蝴蝴(经济)效应?


Commentary by:  Roadside Observer
10 May 2016

中国廿一世纪大战略重中之重的 “絲绸之路经济带”

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许多有读新闻习惯的人都听说了中国政府所发表的“一带一路”的经济思路。而其中的“一帶”即指新絲綢之路经济帶。它也是中国作为一个世界大国的发挥平台和往前发展的大战略。详情大家可从各种媒体报道中加以了解。以下短文重点主要是帶出和讨论這“一带”为什么这么重要。同时也简单的探讨新加坡即不处于這一个地緣政治与经济区,它是否能有机会涉足其中而取得一些经济甜头?

中国与中亞古絲綢之路的重新启动 ~ 新战略布局

~ 为了保障经济持续发展的能源需求。中亞地区富有石油和天然气的巨大储藏量,可供应中国长期发展所需的能源。

~ 为了減低马六甲海峽被美国封锁的战略能源通道的巨大风险。因为现今中国大量的石油入口乃通过马六甲海峽。

~ 启动大规模的基础建设向西面发展地源政治影响力。往东已不可能;日本与韩国都早已被美国納入同盟。

~ 大量利用中国高铁来鍵接這新经济带一直通往中亞到达伊朗和土耳其再通往欧洲;同时带动了中国西北自治区的经济发展。

~ 利用新设立且由中国领軍的亞洲基础建设投资銀行(亞投行),来有效執行这新经济带的交通与各国基础设施建设。这一经济投资策略正合了中亞各国的发展需要。同时也建立了中国在亞洲直达中亞的大国影响力。
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新加坡到底是望梅止渴或是还有机会?

新加坡所面临的选择其实有限。原因,

~ 新加坡並不处于新絲绸之路经济带的理想地理位置上。

~ 新加坡与中国之间的互动仍是属于经济伙伴;而非战略伙伴。新加坡乃是美国的战略伙伴。所以有必要加入泛太平洋伙伴关系 (TPP)。而中国却被挡在门外。

~ 新加坡只能通过加入亞投行来实现分一杯羹的基础设施投资的参与。而且只能等待长期回报。

~ 新加坡本身也正处于经济转型的过程之中;是否有足够的资源配置和大胆的参与其盛?相信新加坡所能提供的应该是货币与金融管理,城市设计和水源方面的服务。其他的产业发展可能仍处于竞争弱势。可新加坡是否有足够的本地人才和本国企业去投入于新絲绸之路经济帶?况且,新加坡人又是否愿意去这些地域工作?

那么,中国的另一个“一路” (廿一世纪海上絲绸之路) 又如何?
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从地缘政治和历史问题来看,这“一路”将会困难重重。
原因?

~ 美国在亞洲太平洋的战略布局能够讓中国突圍而出吗?

~ 东亞与亞細安各国之间的南海争端是一个長期纠纷,各不妥协。再加上美国的“参与其盛”,中国想要重现明朝之大航海时代的构思将十分不容乐观。

~ 中国长期以来与印度和日本之间也存在着较大分歧。

纵观以上种种因素,新加坡在这 “南海一路” 上也就难以受益了。

GOH MENG SENG And Chee Soon Juan ~ What Separates Them


Commentary by:  SG Commoner

9th May 2016

The Independence puts up Goh Meng Seng’s FB article about Dr. Chee Soon Juan; in that Goh asked Chee to leave the political scene because he assesses that Chee would never win in his future bids.

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It is rather irony (and funny) that a “loser” who had quitted the arena and went to live with his family in Hong Kong and now commenting on a “fighter” who is still “enjoying” his fight in the arena.

The following brief information (from the web) is about Goh Meng Seng, who lost his fight in the last general election (2015) with only 23.11% of the valid votes, which was one of the worse performing candidates!

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The following extracts are why Goh Meng Seng thinks that Chee Soon Juan should quit,

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And….

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Goh stresses that for the sake of Chee’s family, it is time for him to take a back seat…
He also feels sorry for Chee who spent 20 years of his prime in the “hopeless” endeavor.

For commoners like us with no political interest, Goh has simply portrayed to the public a profile of himself as a weak character loser.
In contrast, Chee emerges a better person who sticks on to his course.

As most people observe, Chee and his family seem to be very much enjoying the last two election campaigns (2015 and 2016). Apparently Chee is able to put his past behind him and to a large extend (?) focusing on building up trust with voters.

So Mr. Goh, it won’t be “too cruel to ask him (Chee) to continue to fight a destined lost war…” In fact, Chee and his family seemed to spend more time together in the campaign outing!  Didn’t Goh see photos of Chee and family giving everybody their happy smiles?

The logic here is, don’t try to put your own context and failed experience on someone else. You are not him; your family isn’t his family.

The recent Bukit Batok by-election is a good example of proper and fair competition between the two political candidates. While we congratulate the winner of the contest yet there’s no need to rub it in on the other one who put up a good fight.
After every election, Singapore remains an inclusive society. One people, One nation.

Singapore Elected Presidency Election Criteria ~ Is It On The Right Track?


Commentary by:  A Citizen

7th May 2016

This year in Singapore, there are two important (and highly significant) issues that warrant greater attention by its citizens. One is the Future Economy (or Economy Transformation); the other is the review of Elected Presidency (Constitutional commission hearing on elected presidency).

The extracted news report is on the Straits Times today (7 May 2016).

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Of all the public hearing group and individual propopsals and arguments so far, ex minister Mr. Dhanabalan’s proposal remains the most interesting one.

He advocates that, hard criteria remains essential for elected presidency. This is what he says,

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One of the public hearing group from NUS is uncomfortable about Dhanabalan’s proposal; they say this,

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The NUS law undergraduates group apparently raised pretty sound argument about whether affirmative action should be the way forward. Their central idea of “the law should be amended to ensure a candidate is able to unify Singapore’s different races and represent multiracialism, instead of needing the person to come from a minority community.” should be commended for having the essence of why Singapore needs an elected presidency.

To closely examine the issue of elected presidency review, we should be mindful of the following,

~ should not allow the word Minority to take centre stage of the whole review. Otherwise, we tend to construct a highly rigid mechanism built around the election criteria. And, focus on minority candidates has nothing to do with Unifying The Nation. The logic does not work this way. Also, in Singapore we do not have the slightest evidence of if the president is non–minority, the interest and well being of minority community would be compromised. The legislative and administrative power remain with the government in power. Singapore is making progress in Inclusiveness, Community spirit and highly sensible political scene unlike in the long past years. We are talking about bringing the notion of One People, One Nation to the next level instead of going backward. Anyway, minority representation has already long been safeguarded in parliamentary election via the GRC system.

~ Singapore is at a historical juncture (ie. Post Lee Kuan Yew era) as well as at crucial timing, to actively participate in a new world economic and political environment. The issues involve regional security, TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership), terrorism threats, China’s trade initiative (一帶一路) and, how does Singapore able to dovetail with those initiatives that can help us to regain regional competitiveness as well as economy transformation; and to bypass or minimise impact of those issues that will destroy our strengths. Hence, more strategic thinking and new insights should prevail.
It is therefore highly detrimental for the nation to develop itself into a fixed mindset and engrossed in Hard Criteria and that such approach becomes the Only prevailing principle. Elected Presidency review should not easily fall for such syndrome and easy way out.

~ should not turn a relatively simple election system into a complex one. Currently the elected presidency system is supported by Council of Presidential Advisors, Presidential Council for Minority Rights and various governmental agencies when the needs arise. The president is not a Superman operates on his own or making his judgement within a box. Therefore, to try add on more “super-waterproof” or hard criteria that ensure an elected president will do a “perfectly” good job is unnecessary.
This has nothing to do with essence of pragmatism as our founding father who took it at heart. This approach is more of a mentality driven by fear of failure and hence, trying to “lock-in” and safeguard all possibilities.

~ should not be overly excited to jump into conclusion of focusing on ‘Right Experience’ (for elected presidency). This notion carries tons of idealistic and wishful thinking but we all should know that it won’t work in the real world unless the elected presidency job is simply a plumber or car mechanic or airline pilot captain etc. etc.
What’s Right Experience? A heavyweight CV and corporate job that manage billions of dollars worth of asset?
I quote what Mr. Dhanabalan’s caution about this, he says, “… but warn that an impressive CV may not be a good reflection of a person’s experience.”
If truly there’s this so called ‘Right Experience’ magic stuff for high political or national office, then Nelson Mandela would never become the most respected president of South Africa and the world. His experience (including 27 years in prison) and CV would not even qualify him to be called up for first round of interview by the Presidential Election Committee!
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We should not be driven by fear (and trying to cover all sides and be perfectly safe); but rather look beyond the horizon. Because that’s where Singapore Dream lies.

新加坡人有必要关注2016 年的选区補选吗?


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Commentary By: 路边旁观者
5th May 2016

新加坡共和国人民将在这个周末迎来又一次的政治选举。只是这一次的选举性质只是一个“小型”的单一选区補选(两万多选民的参与)对战。原本的国会议员因为婚外情而必须向选民有个“交代”; 自动退下是唯一的方式。

言归正传,如果新加坡人只定格于中短期(廿年之内)的国家发展与現实环境,他们就必须严肃的调整焦点,把注意力集中在经济如何持续增长和社会政策的课题上;而暫时(对,只是暫时)把所谓的言论自由之类的 Good To Have 😁 甜点置之高阁。
其原因十分简单:现在執政的政府团队在这中短期的时间内,仍然是狮城人最佳的藍筹股投资和保险。2015年的全国大选结果是最佳的佐证。现实中,新加坡並没有可替代的執政团队。这事实连国会的最大反对党都承认了。
新加坡的政治,经济与社会发展到了这个重要转折点上,国会里是否多了几个反对党提出“不同的声音”已经是毫无意义和非关键性的。
(根据这几年的关察,反对党在国会内的所谓不同声音已经讓许多新加坡人觉得缺乏深入思考和突破性见解,只能表面化的点到为止。)

真正关键的是狮城人有必要再反思李光耀的务实精神,真正要聚焦的是,经济转型 的大挑战是如何可以達到的?在这未来十年里,如果没有达到全民投入的程度,单是依靠政府单方面资助是无法成功的。无论是从经济主体 (Economy Main Body) 改革或是个別的产业鏈 (Sector) 转型/創新环节來看,其过程都离不开 政府~民间企业~生产个人 之间所须並发的总和大能量,总协调与开放的創新大环境。(ie. Greater synergy and impacts).

因此,经济转型是集合了企业/产业界 + 个人的生产投入;在国家政策所提供的大条件上所发挥的成果。政府是这次”大航海”的船长。即然如此,確立经济转型的座标 (Orientation) 是不可或缺的一个条件。

新加坡经济主体与金融货币政策,常年预算和市场供需等的緊密关系:
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经济转型须调整前进座标,才可全面发挥和深入審视经济主体(即先进服务业,内需市场与商贸) 和各类领域 (市场,科技,产业,区域和金融化) 之间的重组,比重,尤其是创新方向。
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总结: 狮城人该关注这一次的选区補选吗?从事实和逻辑上来说,完全没有必要。多了一个“不同声音”或是公园,有蓋走廊,关怀服务之类的应许,其意义都不大。不管有没有補选或大选,造福全民和带领国家走出困境就是当政者的首要任务。

狮城人从2016 年开始,必须转移焦点和广大视野,重新调整心态和”前进的座标”,才能在政治,社会与经济大环境下依然有所作为,登上另一个层次;往下一个50年挺进。

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